Looking back at the 2016 NBA Draft now, eight years later, I can’t help but feel a mix of admiration and disbelief. As someone who’s spent years analyzing basketball talent and draft outcomes, I’ve seen plenty of surprises, but this class stands out for its extreme highs and lows. It’s fascinating how a single night can shape franchises for a decade—some teams struck gold with late picks, while others whiffed badly on what seemed like sure things. I remember watching the draft live, scribbling notes and making early judgments, and even then, I sensed something unusual was unfolding. The contrast between the steals and busts from that year is so stark it almost feels like a case study in scouting, development, and plain old luck.
One of the biggest steals, without a doubt, was Malcolm Brogdon. Selected 36th overall by the Milwaukee Bucks, he went on to win Rookie of the Year—a rare feat for a second-round pick. I’ve always appreciated his maturity and two-way game; he averaged 10.2 points, 4.2 assists, and shot over 40% from three as a rookie, numbers that screamed value. Compare that to, say, Dragan Bender, who went fourth overall to the Phoenix Suns and never found his footing in the NBA. Bender’s career averages of 5.4 points and 3.9 rebounds per game are a stark reminder that height and potential don’t always translate. I’ll admit, I was skeptical of Bender from the start—his skill set seemed too theoretical for the physicality of the league, and watching him struggle only reinforced my belief that some prospects are overhyped based on workouts rather than in-game performance.
Then there’s Pascal Siakam, the 27th pick by the Toronto Raptors, who blossomed into an NBA champion and All-Star. I recall seeing flashes of his energy early on, but I never predicted he’d become a franchise cornerstone. His rise from the G League to Finals MVP in 2019 is one of my favorite development stories—it shows how crucial patience and the right system are. On the flip side, Kris Dunn, the fifth pick by the Minnesota Timberwolves, never lived up to his draft slot despite being a solid defender. He’s bounced around the league, and while he’s carved out a role, he’s far from the star many expected. In my view, Dunn’s case highlights how teams sometimes prioritize athleticism over skill, leading to missed opportunities.
What’s intriguing is how these draft outcomes resonate beyond the NBA, especially when you look at international contexts like Calvin Oftana’s recent performances. Oftana, though not from the 2016 draft, embodies the kind of late-blooming talent that can emerge as a steal in other leagues. His upcoming Gilas stint follows a remarkable showing in the Commissioner’s Cup, where he’s among the statistical leaders for Best Player of the Conference—averaging around 18 points and 8 rebounds per game, if I recall correctly. Watching players like him thrive reminds me of the undervalued gems in that 2016 class, such as Ivica Zubac, picked 32nd by the Los Angeles Lakers, who’s become a reliable starting center. Zubac’s steady growth, with career averages of about 9 points and 7 rebounds, might not blow anyone away, but for a second-rounder, it’s a huge win. I’ve always argued that teams should focus more on long-term fit rather than flashy upside, and Zubac’s success supports that.
Of course, the busts can’t be ignored. Take Georgios Papagiannis, selected 13th by the Sacramento Kings—a pick that still baffles me. He played just 38 games in the NBA, averaging 4.0 points, and was out of the league quickly. I remember thinking at the time that the Kings reached for him based on size alone, and it’s a classic example of how poor evaluation can set a franchise back. Similarly, Henry Ellenson, the 18th pick by the Detroit Pistons, never panned out, putting up just 3.8 points per game over his career. In contrast, undrafted players like Fred VanVleet, who went on to win a championship with the Raptors, show that talent can be found anywhere if you’re willing to look. VanVleet’s story is personal for me; I’ve followed his journey from Wichita State to NBA stardom, and it’s a testament to grit and self-belief.
As I reflect on all this, the 2016 draft teaches us that no pick is a guarantee, and the best teams often find value in unexpected places. The steals like Brogdon and Siakam have provided immense returns, while the busts serve as cautionary tales. In today’s game, with global talents like Oftana rising, it’s clear that scouting has to be more holistic—looking beyond the draft combine and into real-game scenarios. Ultimately, I believe the legacy of this draft is a reminder to trust the process, but also to stay open to surprises, because in basketball, as in life, the underdogs often have the most compelling stories to tell.
I remember sitting in a crowded Manila sports bar last month, watching the PBA Philippine Cup finals between MERALCO and San Miguel. The energy was electric,
